Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Mestsky stadion UMT. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mestsky stadion UMT, Mlada Boleslav have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion UMT.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 2 for Hradec Králové and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 55% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 57% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Hradec Králové 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.191 / defence 0.653 | Hradec Králové attack 0.760 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.258. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.653 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Mlada Boleslav games / 42 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 51% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 16%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 6.25. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mestsky stadion UMT • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 51% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.30 / Hradec Králové 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.191 / def 0.653 | Hradec Králové attack 0.760 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Hradec Králové xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Mestsky stadion UMT.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion UMT.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 51% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 4W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
51%
1.96
33%
2.99
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
1.93
0.62
Hradec Králové xG
1.96
51%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.62 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 15W 16D 16L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 16L across 47 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 9W 7D 7L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.30 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 16D 16L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.48 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, Hradec Králové 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mlada Boleslav) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 52% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-1 at Mestsky stadion UMT, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Hradec Králové 0.62 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.19 / defence 0.65 against Hradec Králové attack 0.76 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 51% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 16%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 57%, Hradec Králové 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.