Karviná 4-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Karviná welcome Zlin to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Zlin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zlin's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Zlin attack 0.912 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.254. Data: 0 Karviná games / 30 Zlin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 27% | Zlin 31%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 27% | Zlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Karviná 1.58 / Zlin 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Zlin attack 0.912 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Karviná (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Zlin xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 4 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 42% chance of winning, Zlin a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Karviná and Zlin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.85x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.89
1.31
Zlin xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Karviná and 1.31 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Pre-Season
Zlin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Karviná run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Zlin 4-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.58 xG and Zlin 1.31 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Zlin attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 42% | Draw 27% | Zlin 31%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.