Karviná 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karviná at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 0.43 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský Stadión, Karviná have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice (all games): 1W 0D 6L across 7 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.43 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.43 for Karviná, 0.43 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 57% versus Teplice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 43% | Teplice 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 2.37 xG and Teplice 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.073 / defence 1.500 | Teplice attack 0.715 / defence 1.618. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.203. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.618 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Karviná games / 7 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 61% | Draw 19% | Teplice 20%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Teplice 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Karviná (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 100% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 61% | Draw 19% | Teplice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Karviná 2.37 / Teplice 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.073 / def 1.500 | Teplice attack 0.715 / def 1.618 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Karviná (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Teplice xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 61% chance of winning, Teplice a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Teplice in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-0D-6L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 1.07x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.71x) against Karviná's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.29
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.66
1.29
Teplice xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
2%
54.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Karviná and 1.29 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Karviná have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 0W 3D 4L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 1W 0D 6L from 7 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.43 PPG for Karviná against 0.43 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Teplice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.86 scored and 2.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.67 PPG; Teplice away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Karviná, 67% for Teplice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Karviná and 100% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Karviná's games and 67% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karviná's matches and 100% of Teplice's.
Do Karviná and Teplice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 2.37 xG and Teplice 1.29 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.07 / defence 1.50 against Teplice attack 0.71 / defence 1.62, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 61% | Draw 19% | Teplice 20%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 43%, Teplice 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.43 PPG, Teplice 0.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.