Karviná 1-3 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karviná at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Slovan Liberec meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Karviná haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 3W 3D 4L at Městský Stadión — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský Stadión this season.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slovan Liberec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Karviná. A 0.70 PPG lead over Slovan Liberec (1.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Karviná, 3 for Slovan Liberec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 44% versus Slovan Liberec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 53% | Slovan Liberec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.867 / defence 1.067 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.002 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.308. Data: 30 Karviná games / 30 Slovan Liberec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 36%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Slovan Liberec lead the H2H ledger, but Karviná carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 40% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Karviná 1.43 / Slovan Liberec 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.867 / def 1.067 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.002 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Karviná (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Slovan Liberec xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Karviná 1 - 3 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 37% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Karviná and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 3W.
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Karviná (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.87) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.00x) against Karviná's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.60
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.83
1.40
Slovan Liberec xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Karviná and 1.40 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná's recent record stands at 9W 7D 16L from 32 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. Karviná haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 12L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. Slovan Liberec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Karviná against 1.25 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 5W 3D 7L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.47 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Pre-Season
Slovan Liberec
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Karviná's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.20 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 40%, Slovan Liberec 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Karviná) and 40% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 40% of games; Slovan Liberec in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Karviná's recent matches and 60% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Karviná's recent games and 40% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Karviná 1-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.40 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 37% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 36%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 53%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.06 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.