Karviná 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Karviná welcome Plzen to Town Stadium Karvina. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Town Stadium Karvina: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Karviná 2.00 PPG, Plzen 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karviná register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Plzen, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Karviná.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 65% and Plzen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 69% | Plzen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.73 xG and Plzen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.106 / defence 1.029 | Plzen attack 1.134 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.286. Data: 49 Karviná games / 49 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Plzen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Karviná 1.73 / Plzen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.106 / def 1.029 | Plzen attack 1.134 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Karviná (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Plzen xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Plzen kick off?
Karviná vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Karviná 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Karviná vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Plzen part of?
Karviná vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 43% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Karviná and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
Record (7 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 5W.
What form are Karviná and Plzen in?
Karviná (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 1.11x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
43%
2.31
23%
4.32
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.23
1.50
Plzen xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Karviná and 1.50 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 21W 10D 20L from 51 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 12L across 51 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 13W 4D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Plzen in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Plzen have gone 30W 9D 12L in their last 51 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.50 PPG; Plzen away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Karviná or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plzen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 54%, Plzen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Karviná) and 62% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Karviná's recent matches and 54% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Karviná's matches and 62% of Plzen's.
Do Karviná and Plzen tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Plzen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Karviná 0-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.73 xG and Plzen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 43% | Draw 23% | Plzen 34%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 69%, Plzen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.