Karviná 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Karviná at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Dukla Praha travel to Městský Stadión to take on Karviná. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 3W 4D 3L at Městský Stadión — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karviná are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Karviná trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dukla Praha trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Karviná 50% | Dukla Praha 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 67% | Dukla Praha 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.19 xG and Dukla Praha 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.754 / defence 1.243 | Dukla Praha attack 0.643 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.036. Karviná's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Karviná games / 6 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 26%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Dukla Praha 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Dukla Praha 17% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Karviná 1.19 / Dukla Praha 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.754 / def 1.243 | Dukla Praha attack 0.643 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Karviná (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dukla Praha xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Karviná 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Dukla Praha part of?
Karviná vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 44% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Karviná and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Dukla Praha in?
Karviná (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.75x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.33
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.01
0.83
Dukla Praha xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Karviná and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Karviná and 0.83 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dukla Praha's form line: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 1.17 PPG, Dukla Praha on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dukla Praha in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Karviná or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Karviná have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Karviná's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Dukla Praha 1-2 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Dukla Praha?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Karviná 50% BTTS, Dukla Praha 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Karviná) and 33% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 33%; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games; Dukla Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 17% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Karviná's recent games and 33% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karviná's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 7, as Karviná and Dukla Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.19 xG and Dukla Praha 0.83 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Dukla Praha attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 44% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 26%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 67%, Dukla Praha 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.17 PPG, Dukla Praha 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.