Karviná 0-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Karviná welcome Baník Ostrava to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský Stadión this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Karviná carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karviná register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 50% versus Baník Ostrava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | Baník Ostrava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.34 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.847 / defence 1.362 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.978 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.086. Data: 35 Karviná games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 40%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Karviná 1.34 / Baník Ostrava 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.847 / def 1.362 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.978 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Baník Ostrava xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Karviná 0 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 35% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in?
Karviná (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karviná's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
35%
2.87
25%
3.95
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Baník Ostrava xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Karviná and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Karviná and 1.45 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karviná come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 8D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (17W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karviná's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (8W 2D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Karviná are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.52 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Karviná or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karviná and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Karviná 0-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 53%, Baník Ostrava 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Karviná) and 58% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 32% of games; Baník Ostrava in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Karviná's recent matches and 53% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Karviná's matches and 58% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Karviná and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karviná's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 3, as Karviná and Baník Ostrava drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.34 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.85 / defence 1.36 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 40%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Baník Ostrava 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.