Hradec Králové 1-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Slovácko meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hradec Králové have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lokotrans Aréna — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovácko (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.10 for Slovácko. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hradec Králové, 2 for Slovácko and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slovácko — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Slovácko 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Slovácko 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.62 xG and Slovácko 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.830 / defence 0.908 | Slovácko attack 0.909 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.317. Data: 45 Hradec Králové games / 45 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 4.00. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Hradec Králové 1.62 / Slovácko 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.830 / def 0.908 | Slovácko attack 0.909 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Slovácko xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Hradec Králové 1 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 49% chance of winning, Slovácko a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.83x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.91x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.72
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.70
1.09
Slovácko xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
20.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.09 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hradec Králové come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 16D 17L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.74 PPG from 50 outings (26W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.74 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hradec Králové's home form reads 11W 9D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.54 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 16D 17L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 26W 9D 15L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovácko away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.68 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 56%, Slovácko 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Hradec Králové and 76% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hradec Králové's games and 68% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hradec Králové's matches and 76% of Slovácko's.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovácko tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.62 xG and Slovácko 1.09 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 49% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Slovácko 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.34 PPG, Slovácko 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.