Hradec Králové 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Slavia Praha travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slavia Praha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 0 for Slavia Praha and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 4–3 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 57% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / defence 1.054 | Slavia Praha attack 1.144 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.144. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Slavia Praha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 35%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Slavia Praha 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slavia Praha (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Slavia Praha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / def 1.054 | Slavia Praha attack 1.144 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 38% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.08x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.70
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.38 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 10W 14D 11L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. Hradec Králové haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 5L across 35 games — 2.23 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. Slavia Praha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.29 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Pre-Season
Slavia Praha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 24W 6D 5L in their last 35 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.65 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 59%, Slavia Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hradec Králové) and 53% (Slavia Praha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hradec Králové's games and 59% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Slavia Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Slavia Praha attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 35%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.