Hradec Králové 1-3 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 0 for Pardubice and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Pardubice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Pardubice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 2.62 xG and Pardubice 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.955 / defence 0.720 | Pardubice attack 0.876 / defence 1.715. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.393. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.715 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Hradec Králové games / 43 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Pardubice 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 40% | Pardubice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Hradec Králové 2.62 / Pardubice 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.955 / def 0.720 | Pardubice attack 0.876 / def 1.715 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pardubice xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 1 - 3 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 73% chance of winning, Pardubice a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.95) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.72), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
73%
1.37
19%
5.35
8%
11.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.50
0.88
Pardubice xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
11.76
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
7%
13.69
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
1%
161.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 17W 16D 15L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 11W 10D 27L from 48 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (11W 9D 4L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 6W 1D 17L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.06 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 16D 15L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 11W 10D 27L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.75 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Pardubice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hradec Králové and 79% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hradec Králové's games and 67% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hradec Králové's matches and 79% of Pardubice's.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Hradec Králové 1-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.62 xG and Pardubice 0.88 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Pardubice outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Pardubice attack 0.88 / defence 1.72, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Pardubice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.