Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to FINEP Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at FINEP Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pardubice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.90 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 4 for Pardubice and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Pardubice 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Pardubice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.009 / defence 0.906 | Pardubice attack 1.033 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Pardubice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 41% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 31%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Pardubice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hradec Králové 30% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 41% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Hradec Králové 1.34 / Pardubice 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.009 / def 0.906 | Pardubice attack 1.033 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Pardubice xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at FINEP Arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 41% chance of winning, Pardubice a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 3 | Pardubice 4W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.01) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.50
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Pardubice xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.13 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 16W 7D 9L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. Hradec Králové haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pardubice's form line: 12W 8D 12L from 32 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. Pardubice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.72 PPG, Pardubice on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 2.12 PPG from 16 outings (10W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.31 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 69%.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Pre-Season
Pardubice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 games (1.72 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.12 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pardubice in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 38%, Pardubice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hradec Králové) and 56% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 62% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 56% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 2-1 at FINEP Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Pardubice attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 41% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 31%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 47%, Pardubice 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.72 PPG, Pardubice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.