FK Jablonec 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FK Jablonec 0W, Mlada Boleslav 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.08 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.749 / defence 1.077 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.640 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.316. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 FK Jablonec games / 15 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 30%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Mlada Boleslav 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 57% | Mlada Boleslav 57%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG FK Jablonec 1.08 / Mlada Boleslav 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.749 / def 1.077 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.640 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mlada Boleslav xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 39% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.64x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.25
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.91 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 2W 7D 6L from 15 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 7L across 15 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.67 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 2W 7D 6L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.43 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 57%, Mlada Boleslav 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FK Jablonec) and 43% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FK Jablonec's games and 57% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 43% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.08 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.64 / defence 1.03, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.