FK Jablonec 3-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 45%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FK Jablonec at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FK Jablonec have won 2, Baník Ostrava 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended FK Jablonec 0–1 Baník Ostrava — a Baník Ostrava win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 49% versus Baník Ostrava 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 41% | Baník Ostrava 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.60 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.154 / defence 0.836 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.216 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.156. Baník Ostrava have an above-average attack rating of 1.216, which lifts their away xG to 1.18. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 44 games and Baník Ostrava's last 44.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 45% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.24 | Draw 3.36 | Baník Ostrava 3.90. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 45% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.60 / Baník Ostrava 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.154 / def 0.836 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.216 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 3 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 45% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.15) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 44 games and Baník Ostrava's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.36
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.77
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.18 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 15W 17D 17L from 49 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 17L across 49 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.27 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 8D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 11W 5D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.65 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 22W 10D 17L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.58 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.58 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 7, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Baník Ostrava 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FK Jablonec) and 58% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 54% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 58% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 62% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 3-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.60 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.18 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 45% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 41%, Baník Ostrava 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.27 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.