České Budějovice 0-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Slovácko at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slovácko's 1.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for České Budějovice, 3 for Slovácko and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Slovácko 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.10 xG and Slovácko 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.663 / defence 1.203 | Slovácko attack 0.872 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.175. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 České Budějovice games / 39 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 32% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 39%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 60% | Slovácko 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 32% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG České Budějovice 1.10 / Slovácko 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.663 / def 1.203 | Slovácko attack 0.872 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Slovácko xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovácko kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
České Budějovice 0 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovácko part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 32% chance of winning, Slovácko a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 2 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.66x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.42
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.34
1.23
Slovácko xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.23 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 8W 10D 26L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 15W 12D 17L from 44 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 10D 26L in their last 44 games (0.77 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovácko away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.27 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.18 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Slovácko in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Slovácko 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 36% of games; Slovácko in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 41% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Slovácko's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovácko tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat České Budějovice 0-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.10 xG and Slovácko 1.23 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.66 / defence 1.20 against Slovácko attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 32% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 39%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.