České Budějovice 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 4W 1D 2L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for České Budějovice, 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Mlada Boleslav 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 54% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.31 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.982 / defence 1.128 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.649 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.264. Data: 13 České Budějovice games / 13 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 26%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 3.85. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 57% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG České Budějovice 1.31 / Mlada Boleslav 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.982 / def 1.128 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.649 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.98) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.65x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.56
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.24
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.93 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.77 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.67 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
9
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 67%, Mlada Boleslav 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (České Budějovice) and 33% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of České Budějovice's games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of České Budějovice's recent games and 33% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.31 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.65 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 46% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 26%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 54%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.15 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.