České Budějovice 2-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and FK Jablonec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, České Budějovice have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 0.80 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FK Jablonec in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: České Budějovice 2W, FK Jablonec 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 5–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus FK Jablonec 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 66% | FK Jablonec 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.89 xG and FK Jablonec 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.175 / defence 1.396 | FK Jablonec attack 0.844 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.126. Data: 36 České Budějovice games / 36 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 51% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | FK Jablonec 3.70. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 60% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 51% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG České Budějovice 1.89 / FK Jablonec 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.175 / def 1.396 | FK Jablonec attack 0.844 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec part of?
České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 51% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both České Budějovice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.18) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.84x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.46
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.22
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
24.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.33 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 12W 5D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec's form line: 10W 13D 15L from 38 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.13 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (8W 2D 9L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 12W 5D 21L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or FK Jablonec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.37 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
2
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 47%, FK Jablonec 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for České Budějovice and 58% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 37% of games; FK Jablonec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 58% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of České Budějovice's matches and 58% of FK Jablonec's.
Do České Budějovice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out FK Jablonec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat FK Jablonec 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.89 xG and FK Jablonec 1.33 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.18 / defence 1.40 against FK Jablonec attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 51% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 27%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 66%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.08 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.