Dukla Praha 0-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Slavia Praha at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.80 PPG return is 2.40 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slavia Praha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Slavia Praha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 40% | Slavia Praha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.748 / defence 1.124 | Slavia Praha attack 1.324 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.105. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Dukla Praha games / 53 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 19% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 54%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Slavia Praha 1.85. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Dukla Praha 40% | Slavia Praha 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 19% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Dukla Praha 0.88 / Slavia Praha 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.748 / def 1.124 | Slavia Praha attack 1.324 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Dukla Praha 0 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 19% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
19%
5.31
27%
3.72
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.52
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
4%
27.49
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.64 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 58 games, going 9W 21D 28L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.50 PPG from 58 outings (45W 10D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 6W 10D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.15 points per game from 27 outings (17W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.19 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 21D 28L in their last 58 games (0.83 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 45W 10D 3L in their last 58 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.04 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 56%, Slavia Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dukla Praha) and 44% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 44%; Dukla Praha have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 48% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 44% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.12 against Slavia Praha attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 19% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 54%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.