Bohemians 1905 2-6 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bohemians 1905 0W, Sparta Praha 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 60% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 57% | Sparta Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.997 / defence 1.057 | Sparta Praha attack 1.029 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.383. Data: 48 Bohemians 1905 games / 48 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Sparta Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.27 / Sparta Praha 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.997 / def 1.057 | Sparta Praha attack 1.029 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 6 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.03x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.47
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.50 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 13D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 32W 13D 8L from 53 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 12W 7D 6L from 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.02 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 13D 22L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 32W 13D 8L in their last 53 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.32 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 60%, Sparta Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bohemians 1905) and 60% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 48% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 60% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-6 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.50 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Praha attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 41%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 57%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.