Bohemians 1905 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians 1905, 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Sigma Olomouc 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / defence 0.849 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.049 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Semi-finals | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.39 / Sigma Olomouc 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / def 0.849 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.049 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.05x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.44
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.07 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 16D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.33 PPG from 64 outings (23W 16D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.33 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 10W 9D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.06 points per game from 32 outings (8W 10D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 16D 28L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 23W 16D 25L in their last 64 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.22 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 47%, Sigma Olomouc 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 34% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 56% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 1-3 at Dolicek, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.19 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.