Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Dolicek. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG, Plzen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bohemians 1905's 30% rate and Plzen's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Bohemians 1905.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plzen trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 40% versus Plzen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 40% | Plzen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Plzen 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.848 / defence 0.650 | Plzen attack 1.199 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 40 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 30% | Plzen 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Plzen 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 30% | Plzen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.17 / Plzen 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.848 / def 0.650 | Plzen attack 1.199 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Plzen xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance of winning, Plzen a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 7W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.85x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.30
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.08
0.91
Plzen xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.91 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 9D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (20W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.29 PPG, Plzen on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.74 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Plzen have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.30 PPG; Plzen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Plzen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 35% BTTS, Plzen 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Bohemians 1905) and 60% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Plzen in 45%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 35% of games; Plzen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 35% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 60% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Plzen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.