Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Pardubice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Bohemians 1905's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 4W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 10 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Pardubice 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 40% | Pardubice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.30 xG and Pardubice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.823 / defence 0.842 | Pardubice attack 0.927 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.361. Data: 35 Bohemians 1905 games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Pardubice 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.30 / Pardubice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.823 / def 0.842 | Pardubice attack 0.927 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pardubice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance of winning, Pardubice a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.82x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.93x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.61
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
Pardubice xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.06 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (12W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.22 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 5D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.24 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 70%.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Pardubice away?
Pardubice's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Pardubice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Pardubice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 61% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 67% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 61% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.