Bohemians 1905 3-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Bohemians 1905's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Karviná's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 73% and Karviná 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 73% | Karviná 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.87 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.107 / defence 1.259 | Karviná attack 0.532 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.294. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Bohemians 1905 games / 15 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 22% | Karviná 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Karviná 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 83% | Karviná 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 22% | Karviná 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.87 / Karviná 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.107 / def 1.259 | Karviná attack 0.532 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Karviná xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 61% chance of winning, Karviná a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.11) and Karviná's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.53x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.52
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.73
0.87
Karviná xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
38.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.87 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 0W 5D 10L from 15 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bohemians 1905 are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Karviná have gone 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.93 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Karviná in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 5D 10L in their last 15 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.67 PPG; Karviná away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 83%, Karviná 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bohemians 1905) and 17% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 17% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 17% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Karviná 3-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.87 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.11 / defence 1.26 against Karviná attack 0.53 / defence 1.22, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 61% | Draw 22% | Karviná 17%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 73%, Karviná 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.