Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karviná at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's home record at Dolicek: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.
Karviná (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Karviná arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 44% versus Karviná 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Karviná 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Karviná 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.703 / defence 0.972 | Karviná attack 1.209 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.282. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Karviná have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Bohemians 1905 games / 48 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 26% | Karviná 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Karviná 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet Karviná are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Karviná 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 26% | Karviná 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.33 / Karviná 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.703 / def 0.972 | Karviná attack 1.209 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Karviná (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Karviná xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance of winning, Karviná a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 5W | Draws 3 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.70) and Karviná's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.21x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.51
Karviná xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.51 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 14D 22L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 20W 10D 20L from 50 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.40 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 10W 4D 11L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.42 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 14D 22L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Karviná have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Karviná's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.04 PPG; Karviná away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, Karviná 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Bohemians 1905 and 80% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Bohemians 1905's games and 76% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 80% of Karviná's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Karviná in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karviná run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Bohemians 1905 0-3 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Karviná 1.51 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Karviná outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.70 / defence 0.97 against Karviná attack 1.21 / defence 1.37, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 26% | Karviná 41%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Karviná 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karviná's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Karviná 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.