Bohemians 1905 1-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, 0.80 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 69% versus FK Jablonec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 75% | FK Jablonec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.195 / defence 1.192 | FK Jablonec attack 0.548 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Bohemians 1905 games / 16 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 75% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 10%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | FK Jablonec 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 71% | FK Jablonec 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 75% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 51% | xG Bohemians 1905 2.54 / FK Jablonec 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.195 / def 1.192 | FK Jablonec attack 0.548 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.81
FK Jablonec xG
51%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 75% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 1.20x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.55x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
75%
1.34
15%
6.49
10%
10.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.35
0.81
FK Jablonec xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.49
15%
Draw
10.20
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
8%
12.69
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
1%
129.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.81 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 3D 8L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (2W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.81 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.69 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.86 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 71%, FK Jablonec 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Bohemians 1905 and 57% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 29% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 57% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.81 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.20 / defence 1.19 against FK Jablonec attack 0.55 / defence 1.52, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 75% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 10%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a FK Jablonec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 75%, FK Jablonec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.