Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dolicek Stadium plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek Stadium this season.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bohemians 1905, 1.30 for FK Jablonec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Bohemians 1905 5W, FK Jablonec 3W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus FK Jablonec 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | FK Jablonec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG and FK Jablonec 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / defence 0.823 | FK Jablonec attack 0.858 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 34 Bohemians 1905 games / 34 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | FK Jablonec 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.10 / FK Jablonec 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / def 0.823 | FK Jablonec attack 0.858 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FK Jablonec xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 38% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 5W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.86x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.32
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.08
0.98
FK Jablonec xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.98 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 8D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.64 PPG from 36 outings (18W 5D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (7W 0D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 18W 5D 13L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.12 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Bohemians 1905) and 24% (FK Jablonec) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bohemians 1905) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 35%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 41% of games; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 24% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec finished level at 1-1 at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG and FK Jablonec 0.98 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 32%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, FK Jablonec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.