Bohemians 1905 1-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus FK Jablonec 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 45% | FK Jablonec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.968 / defence 1.021 | FK Jablonec attack 0.983 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.053. Data: 35 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet FK Jablonec are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 60% | FK Jablonec 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.21 / FK Jablonec 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.968 / def 1.021 | FK Jablonec attack 0.983 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.97x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.98x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.51
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
FK Jablonec xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.06 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 13D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (11W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.20 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 13D 16L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 11W 15D 14L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.26 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 47%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bohemians 1905) and 37% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 42% of games; FK Jablonec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 37% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 32%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 45%, FK Jablonec 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.