Baník Ostrava 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 1.10 PPG versus Teplice's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 68% versus Teplice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 66% | Teplice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.94 xG and Teplice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.955 / defence 1.157 | Teplice attack 0.926 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.320. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Baník Ostrava games / 33 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Teplice 3.57. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 60% | Teplice 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Teplice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.94 / Teplice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.955 / def 1.157 | Teplice attack 0.926 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Teplice xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 50% chance of winning, Teplice a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
50%
2.01
22%
4.53
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.35
1.41
Teplice xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.41 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 16W 11D 11L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 9W 7D 22L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.05 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Teplice have gone 9W 7D 22L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.67 PPG; Teplice away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 72%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Baník Ostrava and 67% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Baník Ostrava's games and 50% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 67% of Teplice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Teplice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 1-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.94 xG and Teplice 1.41 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 50% | Draw 22% | Teplice 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 66%, Teplice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.