Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 47%, yet in-form Sigma Olomouc provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sigma Olomouc haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sigma Olomouc's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 71% versus Sigma Olomouc 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 65% | Sigma Olomouc 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.980 / defence 1.047 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.940 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.057. Data: 30 Baník Ostrava games / 30 Sigma Olomouc games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 47% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 3.85. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sigma Olomouc (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 70% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 47% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.49 / Sigma Olomouc 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.980 / def 1.047 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.940 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 47% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.79
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.53
1.04
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.04 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 10D 9L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. Baník Ostrava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (11W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. Sigma Olomouc haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.62 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Pre-Season
Sigma Olomouc
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 10D 9L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.76 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 76%, Sigma Olomouc 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Baník Ostrava) and 47% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Baník Ostrava's games and 41% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 47% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Baník Ostrava 0-3 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.04 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 47% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 65%, Sigma Olomouc 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.62 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.