Baník Ostrava 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Baník Ostrava have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Baník Ostrava have won 1, Pardubice 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 2–4 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 60% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 60% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.52 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / defence 0.765 | Pardubice attack 1.053 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.134. Pardubice's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baník Ostrava's projected output up. Baník Ostrava have a tight defence (rating 0.765), which is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 40 games and Pardubice's last 40.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.38 | Draw 6.19 | Pardubice 8.70. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (72%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baník Ostrava's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Baník Ostrava 2.52 / Pardubice 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.099 / def 0.765 | Pardubice attack 1.053 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 72% chance of winning, Pardubice a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 40 games and Pardubice's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.19
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.44
0.91
Pardubice xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.19
16%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
8%
12.49
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
108.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 11D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (14W 7D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.31 PPG, Pardubice on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 2D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Baník Ostrava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 7D 24L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.73 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 3-0 Pardubice.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Pardubice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 54%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Baník Ostrava and 54% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 54% of Pardubice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 68% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.52 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Pardubice attack 1.05 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 72% | Draw 16% | Pardubice 12%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 60%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.31 PPG, Pardubice 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.