Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to face Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hradec Králové (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Baník Ostrava, 1.20 for Hradec Králové — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Baník Ostrava 5W, Hradec Králové 4W, 1D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 35% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 41% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 0.90 xG and Hradec Králové 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.846 / defence 1.060 | Hradec Králové attack 0.759 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Baník Ostrava games / 41 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 32% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 34%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 10% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 32% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Baník Ostrava 0.90 / Hradec Králové 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.846 / def 1.060 | Hradec Králové attack 0.759 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hradec Králové xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 32% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Baník Ostrava 5W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 4W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.76x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.03
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
1.83
0.94
Hradec Králové xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.94 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 12W 9D 25L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 15L across 46 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baník Ostrava heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 8W 3D 11L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 9D 25L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Hradec Králové away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.23 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 27%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Baník Ostrava) and 41% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 46% of games; Hradec Králové in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 41% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.