Baník Ostrava 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava host FK Jablonec at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FK Jablonec — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava have won 2, FK Jablonec 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 45% versus FK Jablonec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 43% | FK Jablonec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.782 / defence 1.065 | FK Jablonec attack 1.076 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.215. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Baník Ostrava games / 44 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 17% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 50%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | FK Jablonec 2.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 40% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 17% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Baník Ostrava 0.73 / FK Jablonec 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.782 / def 1.065 | FK Jablonec attack 1.076 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FK Jablonec xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec part of?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 17% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
Record (8 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
17%
5.96
33%
2.99
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.13
1.39
FK Jablonec xG
5.96
17%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
4%
24.00
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.39 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 24W 9D 16L from 49 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 12L across 49 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.65 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 14W 3D 7L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 13W 4D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.61 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or FK Jablonec away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.88 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 46%, FK Jablonec 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Baník Ostrava) and 42% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 42% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 42% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.39 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 17% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 50%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 43%, FK Jablonec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.65 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.