Baník Ostrava 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava host FK Jablonec at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Baník Ostrava have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Baník Ostrava have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Baník Ostrava, 1 for FK Jablonec and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 1–1 FK Jablonec — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 60% and FK Jablonec 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | FK Jablonec 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.77 xG and FK Jablonec 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.027 / defence 0.771 | FK Jablonec attack 0.879 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.172. Baník Ostrava have a tight defence (rating 0.771), which is pulling FK Jablonec's projected output down. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 42 games and FK Jablonec's last 42.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 61% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 16%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.65 | Draw 4.36 | FK Jablonec 6.11. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 61% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.77 / FK Jablonec 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.027 / def 0.771 | FK Jablonec attack 0.879 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec part of?
Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 61% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 42 games and FK Jablonec's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.36
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.57
0.79
FK Jablonec xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
36.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.79 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 17W 12D 18L from 47 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 21L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.34 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 12W 3D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 4W 6D 14L across their last 24 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.26 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 11W 15D 21L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or FK Jablonec away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.62 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
7
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 54%, FK Jablonec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Baník Ostrava and 62% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Baník Ostrava's games and 62% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 62% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Baník Ostrava and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 75% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.77 xG and FK Jablonec 0.79 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.03 / defence 0.77 against FK Jablonec attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 61% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 16%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FK Jablonec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.34 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.