Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.10 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.059 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.783 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.178. Data: 58 Baník Ostrava games / 58 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 22%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 4.55. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.52 / Bohemians 1905 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.059 / def 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.783 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.36
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.50
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
20.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.98 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 27W 12D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 18W 16D 28L from 62 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.77 PPG from 31 outings (17W 4D 10L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 7D 15L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 games (1.50 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.77 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 45%, Bohemians 1905 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Baník Ostrava) and 39% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 26% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 39% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 39% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 0-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 22%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.