Wuhan Zall 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Wuhan Zall take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Wuhan Zall. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021, 09:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Zall 0.60 PPG, Tianjin Teda 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wuhan Zall, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Zall 60% and Tianjin Teda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 40% | Tianjin Teda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.837 / defence 1.203 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.640 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.224. Data: 10 Wuhan Zall games / 10 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 30% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 50% | Tianjin Teda 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 30% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Wuhan Zall 0.91 / Tianjin Teda 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.837 / def 1.203 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.640 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Tianjin Teda xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:30 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 30% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
39%
2.57
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Tianjin Teda xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 0.94 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 0W 6D 4L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 7L across 10 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.60 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.70 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 6D 4L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.50 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2022, when Tianjin Teda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 50%, Tianjin Teda 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wuhan Zall) and 25% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 50%; Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 50% of games; Tianjin Teda in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 25% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 25% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda finished level at 1-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.64 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 30% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 40%, Tianjin Teda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.60 PPG, Tianjin Teda 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.