Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 5W 1D 4L at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wuhan Three Towns at 1.90 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 50% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 74% | SHANGHAI SIPG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.234 / defence 0.926 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.037 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.357. Data: 34 Wuhan Three Towns games / 34 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.234 / def 0.926 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.037 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.30
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.23x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.87
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.91
1.30
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.30 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 34 games, going 25W 3D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.91 PPG from 34 outings (20W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 2.29 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 12W 1D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.76 points per game from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.62 scored and 0.74 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's scoring rate against SHANGHAI SIPG's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 5D 9L in their last 34 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.18 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Wuhan Three Towns and 53% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 74%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.29 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.