Wuhan Three Towns 4-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 2.71 PPG across 7 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Wuhan Three Towns have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Puwan Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium.
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shanghai Shenhua have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Wuhan Three Towns's 2.71 PPG return is 0.51 points per game ahead of Shanghai Shenhua's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 57% versus Shanghai Shenhua 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 86% | Shanghai Shenhua 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.06 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.668 / defence 0.881 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.149 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.144. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.668 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Wuhan Three Towns games / 21 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 57% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 20%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Shanghai Shenhua 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 57% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.06 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.668 / def 0.881 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.149 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 57% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-0L in 7 | 2.71 PPG | GF 3.29 / GA 0.57 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.67x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.15x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 7/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.25
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.21
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
3%
39.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.16 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.71 PPG on a 6W 1D 0L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, 2.43 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.71 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 2.43 for Shanghai Shenhua. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 3.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.71 scored and 0.57 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Shanghai Shenhua in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Early Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 games (2.71 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 3.00 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 4-1 on 9 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 33%, Shanghai Shenhua 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Three Towns and 33% for Shanghai Shenhua. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 33% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shanghai Shenhua 4-2 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.06 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.67 / defence 0.88 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 57% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 20%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 86%, Shanghai Shenhua 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.71 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 2.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.