Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2022, ended Wuhan Three Towns 2–3 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 54% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 65% | Changchun Yatai 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.61 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.929 / defence 0.905 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.293 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.282. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.50. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 48 games and Changchun Yatai's last 48.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 35%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.53 | Draw 3.87 | Changchun Yatai 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 15 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.61 / Changchun Yatai 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.929 / def 0.905 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.293 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 15) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 39% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 48 games and Changchun Yatai's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
39%
2.53
26%
3.87
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.11
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.50 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 48 games, going 29W 11D 8L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.40 PPG from 48 outings (18W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 12W 6D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.58 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 29W 11D 8L in their last 48 games (2.04 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.83 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Wuhan Three Towns and 70% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 70% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 83% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Changchun Yatai 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.61 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.29 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 35%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 65%, Changchun Yatai 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.