Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 1W 4D 5L at TEDA Football Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.00 PPG versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 56% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 52% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.805 / defence 1.046 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.788 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.374. Data: 46 Tianjin Teda games / 46 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.36 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.805 / def 1.046 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.788 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 42% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 3W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.73
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.13
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.13 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 14D 17L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 13W 5D 28L from 46 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.28 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 17L from 22 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.24 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sichuan Jiuniu in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 13W 5D 28L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.50 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 50%, Sichuan Jiuniu 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tianjin Teda) and 59% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 59% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.13 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 52%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.28 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.