Tianjin Teda 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 3D 3L at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 56% versus Shandong Luneng 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Shandong Luneng 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.015 / defence 0.986 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.088 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.131. Data: 24 Tianjin Teda games / 24 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 60% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.46 / Shandong Luneng 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.015 / def 0.986 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.088 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shandong Luneng xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 42% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.01x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.68
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.68
1.21
Shandong Luneng xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.21 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 8D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.34 PPG from 32 outings (23W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.94 points per game from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.06 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 23W 6D 3L in their last 32 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.12 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
7
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 69%, Shandong Luneng 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Tianjin Teda) and 50% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Tianjin Teda's games and 56% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.46 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Shandong Luneng 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.