Tianjin Teda 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 39%, yet in-form Henan Jianye provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tianjin Teda's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Henan Jianye 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Tianjin Teda 2–1 Henan Jianye — a Tianjin Teda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 63% versus Henan Jianye 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 48% | Henan Jianye 46%). Note also that Henan Jianye surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Tianjin Teda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.32 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.890 / defence 0.942 | Henan Jianye attack 0.989 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.317. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 54 games and Henan Jianye's last 54.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.57 | Draw 3.75 | Henan Jianye 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 40% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.32 / Henan Jianye 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.890 / def 0.942 | Henan Jianye attack 0.989 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.794 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 39% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.89) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 54 games and Henan Jianye's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.75
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.55
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.23 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 20W 21D 13L from 54 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 21L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.50 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 9W 14D 3L from their last 26 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 5W 8D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 21D 13L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.58 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Henan Jianye 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 58%, Henan Jianye 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 50% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 27% of games; Henan Jianye in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Tianjin Teda's games and 54% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 50% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 54% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.32 xG and Henan Jianye 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 48%, Henan Jianye 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.