Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at TEDA Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.70 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 3 for Chengdu Better City and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / defence 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Tianjin Teda games / 41 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Chengdu Better City 1.96. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Chengdu Better City 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.17 / Chengdu Better City 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / def 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Chengdu Better City xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 15 May 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 24% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 3 | Chengdu Better City 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
24%
4.10
25%
4.03
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.77
Chengdu Better City xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
24.14
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.77 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 14D 22L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.98 PPG from 60 outings (35W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.70 points per game from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.08 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Chengdu Better City 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 60% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 60% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.77 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.