Sichuan Jiuniu 5-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Wuhan Three Towns at Baoan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Baoan Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sichuan Jiuniu are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.52 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.888 / defence 0.928 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.943 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.820 / away 1.121. Data: 33 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 33 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.17. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.52 / Wuhan Three Towns 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.888 / def 0.928 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.943 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.820 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wuhan Three Towns xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Sichuan Jiuniu 5 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 50% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (4 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.89) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.88
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.51
0.98
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0.98 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 11D 34L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.93 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.20 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 67%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 53% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sichuan Jiuniu run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Wuhan Three Towns 5-2 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.52 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.98 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 24%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.