Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sichuan Jiuniu take on Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Jonoon travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.747 / defence 1.268 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.532 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.326. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.532 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 7 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 37.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.01 | Draw 2.94 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.05. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.747 / def 1.268 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.532 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 3 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 33% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 7 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.94
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
1.79
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0.89 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.53 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.