Sichuan Jiuniu 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 2D 5L at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium — 0.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.00 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Henan Jianye in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sichuan Jiuniu lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% and Henan Jianye 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Henan Jianye 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 xG and Henan Jianye 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.731 / defence 1.554 | Henan Jianye attack 1.155 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.330. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 48 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 18% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 62%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Henan Jianye 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 18% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 / Henan Jianye 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.731 / def 1.554 | Henan Jianye attack 1.155 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Henan Jianye xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 18% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.16x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 2.39.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
18%
5.41
20%
5.10
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.65
2.39
Henan Jianye xG
5.41
18%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
9%
10.90
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
2%
58.96
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.39 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 8L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.11 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 0.62 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 4-1 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Sichuan Jiuniu, 75% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 75% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 75% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 75% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.26 xG and Henan Jianye 2.39 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.73 / defence 1.55 against Henan Jianye attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 18% | Draw 20% | Henan Jianye 62%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 56%, Henan Jianye 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.94 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.