Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-4 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Shijiazhuang Y. J. versus Wuhan Three Towns in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 4 December 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season.
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 0 for Wuhan Three Towns and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2022, ended 4–3 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Wuhan Three Towns 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Wuhan Three Towns 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.67 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.691 / defence 0.827 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.266 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.404. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 28 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 56%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.67 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.691 / def 0.827 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.266 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 4 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 17% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.27x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 42/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
17%
5.94
27%
3.72
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.14
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
5.94
17%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
4%
25.83
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 17.3 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.47 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 8W 10D 10L from 28 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 21W 2D 5L across 28 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 1W 7D 4L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 10W 1D 1L across 12 trips, a 2.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.82 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 2D 5L in their last 28 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 0.83 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.58 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 0-4 on 4 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Wuhan Three Towns 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 67% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 50%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-4 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.67 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.69 / defence 0.83 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.27 / defence 0.66, drawn from 42/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 56%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Wuhan Three Towns 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.