Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin meet at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.40 for Dalian Aerbin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% versus Dalian Aerbin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Dalian Aerbin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.11 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.684 / defence 0.824 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.880 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.369. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 39 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 31%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Dalian Aerbin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Dalian Aerbin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.11 / Dalian Aerbin 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.684 / def 0.824 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.880 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 37% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.68x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.88x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.18
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.10
0.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.99 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 15D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.11 PPG from 47 outings (14W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.11 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 6W 9D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.19 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.23 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%, Dalian Aerbin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 54% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 41% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 46% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.11 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.99 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.68 / defence 0.82 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 37% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 31%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, Dalian Aerbin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.09 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.