Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Nantong Zhiyun at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nantong Zhiyun — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.70 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 1–1 Nantong Zhiyun — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% and Nantong Zhiyun 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 77% | Nantong Zhiyun 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.443 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.751 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.443 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nantong Zhiyun's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 55 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 22.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.34 | Draw 3.27 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / def 1.443 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.751 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 30% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 55 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.27
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.32 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 3W 3D 16L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 2W 10D 10L from 22 games, 0.73 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 0.55 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (3W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Shenzhen Ruby FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.59 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.77 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun in 64%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Nantong Zhiyun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 10D 10L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 19 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 August 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 70%, Nantong Zhiyun at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 10% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Nantong Zhiyun in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 70% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 10% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 80% of Nantong Zhiyun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantong Zhiyun edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.44 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 77%, Nantong Zhiyun 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.55 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantong Zhiyun win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.