Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 August 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Shenzhen Ruby FC) versus 1.50 (Hangzhou Greentown). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 58% versus Hangzhou Greentown 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shenzhen Ruby FC 58% | Hangzhou Greentown 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.081 / defence 1.080 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.981 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.117. Data: 24 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 10 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.70. Shenzhen Ruby FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.081 / def 1.080 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.981 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hangzhou Greentown xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 48% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (1.08) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.07
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.18
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.18 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 6W 1D 5L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.58 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.17 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hangzhou Greentown have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 33% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 33% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 24/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 58%, Hangzhou Greentown 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.58 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.