Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 July 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1W 3D 0L at Huadu Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huadu Stadium. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Huadu Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 5W 3D 1L from 9 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 2.00 PPG versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.99 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.877 / defence 1.032 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.373 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.175. Guangzhou Evergrande FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 9 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 19% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 19% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.99 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.877 / def 1.032 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.373 / def 1.130 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 19% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
19%
5.27
31%
3.19
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.66
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
5.27
19%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
27.81
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.66 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 1L across 9 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 2.00 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shenzhen Ruby FC's scoring rate against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Guangzhou Evergrande FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 50% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 50%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.99 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.66 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.37 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 19% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.00 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.