SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 5W 2D 3L at Dalian Sports Center — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SHANGHAI SIPG at 1.80 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 1, Tianjin Teda 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 5–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 43% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.856 / defence 0.753 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.128 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.306. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 28 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 29%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Tianjin Teda 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Tianjin Teda 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.856 / def 0.753 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.128 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 41% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (0.86) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.41
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 19W 9D 7L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.17 PPG from 18 outings (12W 3D 3L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Tianjin Teda away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.17 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 28%, Tianjin Teda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 33% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 33% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.86 / defence 0.75 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.13 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 29%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 40%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.